The Midfield Playmaker

With the Premier League closing in on the halfway pointr, we have seen a huge influence from a number of midfield players. One in which there was a lot of hype early in the season was Eden Hazard in midfield for Chelsea, and the player’s unbelievable ability to make passes in the centre of the field to assist his team mates (not to mention the ability to score himself!). I guess we have Spain to thank for the emphasis placed on the passing game in football with their incredible success in world football and recognizable style of play. So I decided to take the time to look at Premier League midfielders from 2011-12 and see which team had the best midfield passers and whether this made them a more successful team.

To kick this off then, I looked at which players had the best and worse pass success average. The data as a whole concentrated on midfielders and their total pass and middle third pass success.

The graphs are relatively simple to understand but there were some conditions placed on the players involved. Firstly, each player had to of played in 10 games over the season to be included, and the total passes were added up and divided by the amount of games they played to get the average.

Unsurprisingly, we see some big names in the top 10. Arteta, Carrick and Y. Toure all averaged above 60 successful passes per game and, considering all three players are in the top 3 teams of the 2011-12 season, I would find it plausible that some of the teams’ success is the presence of key players in midfield that control the play with accurate passing. What I do find interesting though is that 3 Man Utd players made the top 10 whereas Man City had only the one player, considering Man City eventually triumphed as Champions. This could suggest that whilst having exceptional passers in midfield is important, it may be that success is determined by the players around that make the space and finish off the plays that the key midfielders initiate.

Flipping this around, when we look at the 10 worst passers of the 2011-12 season, it probably wouldn’t surprise you to see four of the players were part of a team that got relegated. In addition, to this we can see players from QPR, West Brom and Wigan, all of whom struggled last season, in the worst 10. To me, this seems to reinforce the point made earlier that teams need a quality passer in midfield to control the game and determine success. I understand that the likes of Wolves, QPR, Bolton etc. will have had other players in their squad that would perform better than those shown but, in comparison to the 3 Man Utd players in the top 10, the quality in depth when looking at the midfield could well have been the downfall for some.

The finale to this particular area focusses on the best 20 passers in the middle third of the pitch. I thought it interesting to look at this area simply because, in the 90 minutes as a whole, most of that time is spent in the middle of the pitch. Therefore, I thought if a team can control possession in this area of the pitch then surely they can convert that to success.

To explain this first and foremost, the black line is the amount of successful middle third passes made on average per game. The orange bars represent the success percentage of middle third passes attempted on average per game. So, in looking at the results the most obvious outcome is that Yaya Toure had the best average of middle third pass successes with 41 per game, closely followed by Carrick, Arteta and Swansea’s Leon Britton. Again, most probably coincidence but the top 3 in this graph follow the final standings of last seasons’ top 3, further enhancing my theory that these midfielders are at the root of team success. On the other hand, when looking at percentage success, the best two performers were Scholes and Essien. This statistic is significant for the players’ respective teams considering they can rely on those players to keep possession in midfield. However, both players have a relatively low average of passes made per game which could suggest that their percentage success is due to less passes being attempted than say Toure or Carrick. Therefore, if a team can find a player who can get a 95+ % success rate when attempting a lot of passes per match then they could well be on the way to a very successful season (much like Chelsea in finding Eden Hazard!!).

In summary then, I think that what this data has shown is that the midfield role within any team is crucial for that team to succeed, and to find even one such player that can control the game in this area can drastically benefit the players around him and the team’s success as a whole. As always, go to the MCFC Analytics site and feel free to download the data. The more people we can get delving into the data available the better!!

Importance of the First Goal

David Moyes once commented that “…if you concede first in the Premier League, it [winning] becomes difficult” following a 2-0 defeat to West Brom. This quote got me thinking along similar lines, so I decided to make further use of the MCFC Analytics data to look at team success when scoring, or conceding, the first goal.

The obvious starting point then is looking at the Premier League as a whole, and how often the team scoring first wins, loses or draws.

As we can see, 67.6% is quite an overwhelming percentage for this specific result and would be fair to say that scoring the first goal in the Premier League is a great indicator of how the match will turn out. Of course, this does depend on the scoring team keeping concentration throughout the match once that crucial goal has been scored!

Moving on, I broke this statistic down, looking at each team separately to see firstly; how often each team scored the first goal and secondly; how many times that team converted the first goal into a win.

To simplify this into numbers then, the graph shows Man Utd scored the first goal 30 times over the season and converted a massive 90% of those into wins. Man City weren’t far behind scoring the first goal 28 times and converting 89% of those into wins. On the other hand, both Bolton and Wolves scored a measly 10 first goals over the season, with wolves only converting 20% of those into wins. Fair to say, it is unsurprising either team were relegated.

To finish off the first goal concept, I looked at how many times each team conceded the first goal. As important as scoring the first is, my personal opinion is that conceding first has a much more dramatic effect on team morale. Fair to say my prediction for this particular statistic was that the teams that regularly concede first were those in the lower half of the table.

As predicted, the graph shows us that Blackburn, Bolton and Wolves conceded the first goal most out of any team in the league last season. Considering all three got relegated, I do think this indicates the importance of scoring/conceding that first goal.

To sum it all up, some people often dismiss the importance of scoring first in football; often times saying that it can be a motivator to improve should you go one down first. In my opinion, the first goal is critical in the outcome of the match and teams should push hard to get on the right side of the score-line early, it may help you more than you think.

I genuinely would encourage you to go on MCFC Analytics and download the data yourself, have a play around and you never know what you might discover…

Goalkeeping in the Premier League

I decided to start this blog, intending to use the new data released by Manchester City FC in conjunction with OPTA Pro, to create and discover different statistics that formed the 2011-12 Premier League. In doing so, I hope to find trends that may help guide any team to better themselves and create discussions surrounding the whole concept of Performance Analysis within football.

To start my blogging then, I decided to look at the Goalkeepers of last season’s League and how much their performance could be linked to the team’s success. My first port of call then was clean sheets kept during the whole season, thinking the obvious that not conceding on a regular basis must benefit the standings greatly.

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So doing this, I created my first graph from the data. The graph shows the amount of clean sheets kept by GKs during the 2011-12 Premier League season which included any keeper that started in 15 games at least. As expected, Joe Hart (Man City – Champions) is top with 17 clean sheets over the season and Jaaskelainen and Bogdan of (Bolton – relegated) are nearly at the bottom. However, to show the true extent of the data it is important to note that some GKs will have played more games than other, and we can look at the average clean sheets in accordance with matches played to get a better idea of who performed best over the season.

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So in looking at the season average, we can see how some players have moved in accordance with the amount of matches played. Most noticeably, De Gea (Man Utd) has moved above Hart in average clean sheets during the season (an indication of the title race between the two teams). From this, it may be possible to see where Manchester Utd lost the title in the fact that De Gea was absent for more games than Hart and therefore crucial games that were lost by Man Utd may have been salvaged had De Gea been involved.

Moving on, we can now look at the efficiency of GKs within the 18 yard box, where most strikers tend to attempt (and score) their shots, by comparing the total shots saved in the area with the amount conceded. Image

So with this new graph, we can look at how well the keepers have dealt with this situation over the past season. Surprisingly, the graph shows us that Hennessey (Wolves) and Vorm (Swansea) actually have the highest percentage of saves inside the box than any other keeper, with Sorensen (Stoke) and Reina (Liverpool) conceding the most in the same scenario. If this is any indication, the ability to save goals inside the area doesn’t seem to matter in terms of overall standings of the team, but it can’t hurt to be skilled in the area should your defence prove weak!

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Finally, when considering GK success in the Premier League, the most obvious of statistics to look at is the percentage of shots a keeper saves out of the total shots taken against him. Using the graph to show success, the most successful would be determined though being placed in the upper-right corner, with a high percentage of shots saved against a high number of shots taken. Therefore, a trend seems to emerge in that De Gea (Man Utd) and Hart (Man City) are the furthermost right with percentage saves averaging around 77-78%. This seems to indicate how important the keepers are in their role and in helping the team challenge for League success. Looking at the statistics provided, it would appear that although a team needs excellent firepower up front, a team will truly succeed if they have a consistently good presence tending the goal.

I hope that this has emphasised the importance of a talented goalkeeper within the team, although I’m sure this was never in dispute. I would encourage everyone to download the data set of MCFC Analytics themselves, and sift through the data in any way they wish. You may well disagree with my conclusions…